Democratic Count for Test Poll

Carl Milsted, Jr on Nov 28 16:41:28

Originally published October 24, 2019

The field is narrowing and people are complaining about the sizes of the ballots. So I am getting ready to weed down the database and restart the count. But before doing so, here are the results on the Democratic side as of Oct. 24, 2019:

Plurality vote totals:

Candidate Number of Votes
Michael Bennet 1
Joe Biden 3
Cory Booker 0
Steve Bullock 1
Pete Buttigieg 2
Julian Castro 2
Bill de Blasio 0
John Delaney 1
Tulsi Gabbard 7
Kirsten Gillibrand 0
Kamala Harris 3
Jay Inslee 1
Amy Klobuchar 1
Wayne Messam 0
Seth Moulton 0
Beto O’Rourke 6
Tim Ryan 0
Bernie Sanders 16
Joe Sestak 0
Tom Steyer 0
Elizabeth Warren 10
Marianne Williamson 0
Andrew Yang 12
TOTAL: 66

The winner is Bernie Sanders with 24.242424242424% of the vote

Approval Vote Count

Approval vote totals:

Candidate Number of Votes
Michael Bennet 5
Joe Biden 16
Cory Booker 11
Steve Bullock 6
Pete Buttigieg 16
Julian Castro 10
Bill de Blasio 4
John Delaney 5
Tulsi Gabbard 12
Kirsten Gillibrand 6
Kamala Harris 11
Jay Inslee 8
Amy Klobuchar 10
Wayne Messam 3
Seth Moulton 3
Beto O’Rourke 18
Tim Ryan 4
Bernie Sanders 33
Joe Sestak 3
Tom Steyer 2
Elizabeth Warren 23
Marianne Williamson 6
Andrew Yang 18
Ballots Cast: 66

The winner is Bernie Sanders with 50% of the vote

Range Count

Candidate Number of Stars
Michael Bennet 159
Joe Biden 227
Cory Booker 247
Steve Bullock 163
Pete Buttigieg 280
Julian Castro 238
Bill de Blasio 143
John Delaney 139
Tulsi Gabbard 287
Kirsten Gillibrand 177
Kamala Harris 225
Jay Inslee 219
Amy Klobuchar 206
Wayne Messam 106
Seth Moulton 100
Beto O’Rourke 246
Tim Ryan 136
Bernie Sanders 415
Joe Sestak 106
Tom Steyer 128
Elizabeth Warren 351
Marianne Williamson 172
Andrew Yang 327

And the winner is: Bernie Sanders

Instant Runoff (Ranked Choice) Counts

Instant Runoff required 9 rounds:

Round 1:

Michael Bennet 0
Joe Biden 2
Cory Booker 1
Steve Bullock 1
Pete Buttigieg 3
Julian Castro 2
Bill de Blasio 1
John Delaney 1
Tulsi Gabbard 7
Kirsten Gillibrand 0
Kamala Harris 3
Jay Inslee 1
Amy Klobuchar 1
Wayne Messam 0
Seth Moulton 0
Beto O’Rourke 6
Tim Ryan 0
Bernie Sanders 14
Joe Sestak 1
Tom Steyer 1
Elizabeth Warren 9
Marianne Williamson 0
Andrew Yang 12

Eliminated in this round:

  • Michael Bennet
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Wayne Messam
  • Seth Moulton
  • Tim Ryan
  • Marianne Williamson
  • Cory Booker
  • Steve Bullock
  • Bill de Blasio
  • John Delaney
  • Jay Inslee
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Joe Sestak
  • Tom Steyer

Round 2:

Joe Biden 3
Pete Buttigieg 4
Julian Castro 2
Tulsi Gabbard 7
Kamala Harris 3
Beto O’Rourke 7
Bernie Sanders 18
Elizabeth Warren 10
Andrew Yang 12

Julian Castro eliminated in this round.

Round 3:

Joe Biden 3
Pete Buttigieg 4
Tulsi Gabbard 7
Kamala Harris 4
Beto O’Rourke 7
Bernie Sanders 19
Elizabeth Warren 10
Andrew Yang 12

Joe Biden eliminated in this round.

Round 4:

Pete Buttigieg 5
Tulsi Gabbard 8
Kamala Harris 4
Beto O’Rourke 8
Bernie Sanders 19
Elizabeth Warren 10
Andrew Yang 12

Kamala Harris eliminated in this round.

Round 5:

Pete Buttigieg 5
Tulsi Gabbard 9
Beto O’Rourke 8
Bernie Sanders 19
Elizabeth Warren 12
Andrew Yang 13

Pete Buttigieg eliminated in this round.

Round 6:

Tulsi Gabbard 10
Beto O’Rourke 8
Bernie Sanders 20
Elizabeth Warren 14
Andrew Yang 14

Beto O’Rourke eliminated in this round.

Round 7:

Tulsi Gabbard 11
Bernie Sanders 24
Elizabeth Warren 17
Andrew Yang 14

Tulsi Gabbard eliminated in this round.

Round 8:

Bernie Sanders 29
Elizabeth Warren 18
Andrew Yang 19

Elizabeth Warren eliminated in this round.

Round 9:

Bernie Sanders 43
Andrew Yang 23

And the winner is: Bernie Sanders

Range with Runoff Count

First Round:

For the first round, we count just as in Range Voting, but we are interested in the top two candidates. If there is a tie for second place in this round, then we take the top candidate and all second place candidates to the second round.

Candidate Number of Stars
Michael Bennet 156
Joe Biden 228
Cory Booker 240
Steve Bullock 163
Pete Buttigieg 275
Julian Castro 242
Bill de Blasio 160
John Delaney 140
Tulsi Gabbard 287
Kirsten Gillibrand 179
Kamala Harris 227
Jay Inslee 225
Amy Klobuchar 203
Wayne Messam 105
Seth Moulton 98
Beto O’Rourke 249
Tim Ryan 135
Bernie Sanders 412
Joe Sestak 105
Tom Steyer 127
Elizabeth Warren 351
Marianne Williamson 172
Andrew Yang 328

The following candidates make it to Round 2:

Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren

Second Round:

Here are the vote counts for the second round. A candidate gets a vote if he/she has the highest number of stars in the truncated ballot. If multiple candidates get the same, highest, star count, then multiple candidates get a vote. In this sense, the second round is somewhere between Plurality and Approval.

Candidate Votes
Bernie Sanders 47
Elizabeth Warren 39

And the winner is: Bernie Sanders

Hopefully with a narrower field, more people will complete the poll.

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